Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

John McCain took the stage today to address the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) in Kansas City, MO. His address focused on the Iraq War, ahead of this week’s anticipated testimony by General Petraeus.

McCain made the case that his assessment on the military conduct of the war and that his support for the “Surge” have both proved right.

Results from Select2008’s election face-offs show that the Iraq War remains a highly divisive topic and that McCain’s views are not yet shared by a wide majority of voters:

- The U.S. is making progress in Iraq 49% agree and 50% disagree based on 5,000+ votes including 300+ last week

- The ‘Surge’ of early 2007 is the right strategy in Iraq 45% agree and 54% disagree based on 2,900+ votes including over 100 last week

- Maintain a residual U.S. force of 50,000 troops in Iraq to protect American interests and to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations 38% agree and 61% disagree based on 12,000+ votes including 600+ last week

- Iraq will become a failed state if the U.S. withdraws its troops now 49% agree and 50% disagree based on 2,100+ votes and over 100 last week

Popularity: 53% [?]

McCain and Obama traded barbs over the last couple of days on Al Qaeda, Iran, Iraq, and their respective experience and judgment in National Security. Senator McCain went back and forth over the last couple of days about Iraq, Iran, Al Qaeda, the broader issue of radical Islam and the war on terror.

His comments on the Iran-Al Qaeda relationship incensed the Democratic blogosphere, which qualified them as a “gaffe”. Obama also took advantage of a scheduled talk in North Carolina to criticize his confusion and undermine his alleged national security experience.

Some bloggers and reporters seem to indicate though that his connection seems more of a gray area. Regardless, his campaign went back at Obama, pounced on the supposed connection and highlighted McCain’s alleged experience in foreign affairs.

This clash on the 5^th anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq gives an opportunity to revisit the top questions on the broader Middle East. Iran is indeed a key concern. Americans seem eager to avoid repeating the process that led them into Iraq. Al Qaeda remains also a key concern:

• Rule out using force with Iran – 39% agree and 47% disagree based on 1,000 votes
• Congress should authorize any preemptive or strategic attack in Iran – 45% agree and 36% disagree on 900 votes
• Withdraw all U.S. troops from the Middle East – 37% agree and 51% disagree based on 800 votes
• The Iranian Revolutionary Guard should be labeled as ‘terrorist organization’ – 27% agree and 29% disagree based on 2.500 votes
• The next President should rule out using nuclear weapons against terrorist leaders like Osama Bin Laden – 60% agree and 32% disagree based on 11,500 votes

Popularity: 89% [?]

The top five most contentious issues on Select2008 paint an interesting picture of the electorate ahead of the important Texas and Ohio primaries on Tuesday. These issues are among the many polling results gathered on the Select2008 website, as users compare the presidential candidates to make up their minds, in four distinct face offs: Clinton vs. Obama, McCain vs. Huckabee, Clinton vs. McCain, and Obama vs. McCain.

First, key social issues – same-sex marriage and abortion – remain as divisive as ever in the electorate. These issues are currently eclipsed by the partisan nature of the primaries. However, as we enter the general election season, we expect these issues will come back to the forefront.

- Marriage should only be defined as the union between a man and a woman – 46% agree and 46% disagree out of 3,200+ votes and 900+ votes last week

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Abortion is the wrong choice except in cases of incest, rape and to save the life of the mother – 44% agree and 49% disagree out of 1,700+ votes and 700+ votes last week

- Prohibit same-sex marriage, but allow domestic partnerships providing to same-sex partners the same benefits as marriage 44% agree and 48% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 750+ votes last week

The issues of illegal immigration and earned legalization process are also very sensitive. It will be interesting to see how this issue plays with the electorate, not only at the presidential level, but also at State and local levels, especially in border states. McCain’s about face on the matter does not shield him from criticism on his right.

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration – 47% agree and 43% disagree out of 10,400+ votes and 2,000+votes last week

Finally, the issue of Iraq is coming back to the forefront. The apparent and relative improvement of the situation on the ground is reflected in voters’ opinion. If the conflict stays on this track, Iraq will increasingly play to McCain’s strengths vs. Clinton’s and Obama’s anti-war stances.

- The U.S. is making progress in Iraq – 43% agree and 47% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 800+ votes last week

Popularity: 98% [?]

Last night’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama put on display some key differences between the two candidates’ platform and positions, but did not reveal much new about them.

Key policy and programmatic differences in the Clinton vs. Obama Face Off concern domestic issues – such as healthcare, immigration, and retirement - and foreign affairs issues – including diplomacy, free trade, and the war in Iraq. The summary below also includes links to the corresponding questions on Select2008.

Foreign Affairs – Clinton and Obama have strongly disagreed on several foreign affairs-related issues:

- Obama stated his support in favor of talking with leaders of ‘rogue’ nations without preconditions, including the Iranian leadership and the newly-nominated Cuban leader, Raul Castro;

- the two candidates further disagree on normalizing relations with Cuba;

- Clinton supported the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while Obama asserted that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran;

- The two candidates also disagree on having the U.S. join the International Criminal Court;

Free Trade – Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced a softening economy; this issue is particularly sensitive ahead of the Ohio primaries. Although both candidates supported the Peru free trade agreement, they disagree on key free trade issues: negotiate new free trade agreements and renegotiate NAFTA;

War in Iraq – Clinton and Obama have had differences over the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; the two candidates also disagree on the way forward on Iraq, either by federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, or by following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, as well as the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

Universal Healthcare – Both candidates have come out in favor of Universal Healthcare. However, Clinton’s Universal healthcare plan differs quite significantly from Obama’s healthcare plan, including on issues as fundamental as:

- universal coverage for all Americans,

- mandatory coverage for all Americans,

- drugs reimportation,

- means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance,

- health insurance for small business employees, and

- access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program

Immigration – On immigration, the two candidates have disagreed on mainly two issues: the support for driving licenses for undocumented immigrants and the scope of an earned legalization program for undocumented immigrants.

Retirement – Both Clinton and Obama have made proposals on retirement to ensure Social Security’s future, guarantee its defined benefit pensions, and facilitate retirement savings. However, the candidates have disagreed on key measures to maintain Social Security’s funding into the future, such as raising or eliminating the cap on Social Security taxable income to prevent benefit cuts for future retirees, and levying Social Security taxes on income revenues higher than $200,000/year.

Popularity: 54% [?]

The War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism have been looming large over the primaries and presidential campaign.

Interestingly, extremist and populist positions, such as leaving Iraq within 6 months, have vanished. The controversy now focuses on how best to stabilize Iraq, draw down the number of U.S. troops deployed over there, and adjust military expenses to new economic realities.

As for the War on Terrorism, closing the Guantanamo Bay prison camp and banning torture in counter-insurgency and intelligence activities draw the most controversy.

The following sample is based on over 450,000 votes on Select2008.com over the last few weeks:

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq‘s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces - 48% agree and 43% disagree

- Reduce the U.S. military budget - 49% agree and 43% disagree

- The U.S. is making progress in Iraq - 39% agree and 50% disagree

- Increase U.S. aid to Iraqi refugees- 39% agree and 42% disagree

- Support indefinite incarceration in Guantanamo Bay for terrorists - 39% agree and 46% disagree

- The U.S. Congress should stop funding the war in Iraq - 54% agree and 39% disagree

- Ban the use of torture by American intelligence and law enforcement officers - 51% agree and 38% disagree

Popularity: 28% [?]

Today’s hottest questions mix domestic and international affairs and demonstrate that voters consider the candidacies’ multiple facets to make up their minds:

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Support education vouchers for private schools

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 42% [?]

Rudy Giuliani has abandoned his bid to the presidential candidacy in the aftermath of the Florida primaries and endorsed John McCain. However, his supporters might want to make up their own minds and choose between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Although other candidates are still in the race on the Republican side - namely Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul - McCain and Romney have really jumped ahead of the pack, so we’ll focus on them for now.

We highlight below the key policy issues that will help Giuliani’s supporters choose between McCain and Romney for the remaining Republican primaries and Super Tuesday:

- Energy and environment: Giuliani agreed with Romney and disagreed with McCain on global warming and energy independence, including supporting biofuels and corn ethanol subsidies, tapping into domestic sources of oil such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), setting up a Federal market to trade carbon emissions caps, and increasing research funding for alternative energy technology;

- Healthcare: Giuliani’s healthcare plan and support for market-based approaches to lower healthcare costs and to increase access to health insurance has differences and similarities with McCain and Romney’s proposals, such as drug reimportation, setting up a means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, creating a tax deduction for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, a tax deduction for healthcare costs, or subsidies to high-cost and low-income individuals to supplement tax credits and Medicaid;

- Homeland Security and war on terrorism: Giuliani and McCain have both boasted his leadership skills, as well as military and foreign affairs experience, to propel their candidacies; however Giuliani disagreed more often with McCain than with Romney on this issue, in particular on maintaining the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, supporting the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding,, and supporting the NSA‘s warrantless wiretapping program; on the other hand, Giuliani and Romney had their strongest disagreements on illegal immigration, for instance on Federal grants to sanctuary cities.

- Social issues: Giuliani’s stance on conservative social issues undermined his candidacy; however, even McCain and Romney disagree on gun control and on whether to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution on marriage, defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; their support of a pro-life position and record on the question also differ;

- Taxes: Giuliani disagreed with both McCain and Romney on the Alternative Minimum Tax; Giuliani proposed steep tax cuts, which provide common grounds with both McCain and Romney, although these candidates differ on both on tax incentives to corporations and income tax; they also have not both signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

Popularity: 68% [?]

John Edwards has just announced that he is ending his bid for the presidential candidacy. This announcement leaves Edwards’ supporters to decide who they will vote for and choose for the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week. We have tracked down in previous posts the five key domestic and international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree.

We are now narrowing the field of key issues for Edwards supporters, based on his positions and proposals during the campaign:

- Foreign affairs: on several foreign affairs-related issues, Edwards sided with either Clinton or Obama; he supported Obama on talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; he opposed Clinton’s support for the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while agreeing with Obama that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; on the other hand, he was ready to go beyond what Clinton and Obama have proposed in terms of strategic incentives for Iran to suspend its nuclear program;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; Edwards opposed the Peru free trade agreement, and overall promoted increased protectionism to shield U.S. workers’ from the downsides of globalization. On free trade, Edwards sided with Clinton on key free trade issues: negotiating new free trade agreements and renegotiating NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Edwards, like Clinton and unlike Obama, supported the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; he opposed federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, and concurred with Obama on following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group as a guideline for a political solution in Iraq. On the other hand, he disagreed with both Clinton and Obama on the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- Universal healthcare: Edwards put forward a very comprehensive and detailed plan for universal healthcare. Clinton’s and Obama’s plan both have differences and similarities with Edwards’ plan on universal coverage for all Americans, mandatory coverage for all Americans, drugs reimportation, means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, health insurance for small business employees, and access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program;

- Immigration: Edwards, like Clinton, opposed providing driving licenses for undocumented immigrants; he agreed with both Clinton and Obama on the need for an earned legalization program for undocumented immigrants.

Popularity: 48% [?]

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