Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

Select2008.com registered over 50,000 votes over the last couple of days.

Our live polling reveals how close the race still is, just a few hours from the actual primaries:

- Obama leads over Clinton 49% to 45%;

- McCain and Romney are tied at 36% both.

Popularity: 19% [?]

Five issues stir up voters on Select2008, each with defining policy questions:

- Immigration Reform

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Healthcare

- Achieve universal healthcare as quickly as possible

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Social Issues

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Support ban on partial birth abortion

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, is right to ask to maintain the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy

- Foreign Affairs and War on Terrorism

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 41% [?]

• The Party Animal Either Plays Well or Fights Well - New York Times

  Call it a split between whether politics should be a pursuit of consensus or an effort to enact a party’s fundamental ideas, its core orthodoxy.

  (tags: Select2008 Select 2008 S08 Primaries democrats republican obama clinton mccain romney consensus orthodoxy politics)

• McCain Makes Headway With Conservative Wing - WSJ.com

  The Republican presidential campaigning rolls on this weekend, with Sen. John McCain working to make headway with the party’s stalwarts and Mitt Romney facing renewed attention on his Mormon faith.

  (tags: mccain romney clinton candidates select2008 S08 conservative republican democratic 2008)

• Newsvine - Polls Show Obama Closing in on Clinton

  (tags: obama clinton Select2008 polls primaries democrats)

• Obama Leading over Clinton on Select2008 ahead of Super Tuesday

  According to Select2008.com’s live polling on candidates’ proposals and positions, Obama leads over Clinton, ahead of the Super-Tuesday primaries, 49% to 45%. A closer look reveals that Obama’s positions and proposals lead on the key issues of defense,

  (tags: Obama Defense Economy Education Government Reform Healthcare Clinton Homeland_Security International_Affairs Select2008)

• McCain Looks Confident; Democratic Race Tightens - New York Times

  (tags: mccain clinton obama primaries presidential elections super-tuesday)

• Stealthy Groups Shake Up Races - WSJ.com

  Sophisticated campaign organizations have sprung up amid the many groups pumping money into the presidential primaries. They aren’t subject to limits on campaign contributions and can directly ask people to vote for and against candidates.

  (tags: 2008 elections 501(c)4 organization republican democrats primaries select2008)

• Top of the Ticket : Los Angeles Times : Breaking News: Pro-Clinton push poll erupts in California

  Breaking News: Pro-Clinton push poll erupts in California

  (tags: 2008 clinton obama primaries push-poll Select2008)

Popularity: 15% [?]

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are furiously campaigning to rally voters for the Super Tuesday vote. They will spend an record $19 million in ads over the next few days to sway voters in the 22 States that hold a primary this Tuesday.

With just a few days ahead and a surge in votes on Select2008 over the last few days, Obama appears to be leading over Clinton on the issues, 49% to 45%. A closer look reveals that Obama’s positions and proposals lead on the key issues of defense, economy, government reform, healthcare, and international affairs. Clinton leads on homeland security and education.

Popularity: 58% [?]

The field of presidential hopefuls has narrowed down this week with Edwards and Giuliani bowing out of the race. However, the race is more competitive than ever, ahead of next week’s Super Tuesday primaries.

To help users make up their minds in these more confrontational times, we are launching four Primaries Face Offs on Select2008:

Users can still compare and choose among more than two candidates, especially useful for Republican and Independent voters.

Users can also refer to some of our recent blog posts on the Democratic Face Off and the Republican Face Off, as well as our posts to help Edwards and Giuliani supporters make up their minds.

Popularity: 32% [?]

Today’s hottest questions mix domestic and international affairs and demonstrate that voters consider the candidacies’ multiple facets to make up their minds:

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Support education vouchers for private schools

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 39% [?]

John Edwards has just announced that he is ending his bid for the presidential candidacy. This announcement leaves Edwards’ supporters to decide who they will vote for and choose for the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week. We have tracked down in previous posts the five key domestic and international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree.

We are now narrowing the field of key issues for Edwards supporters, based on his positions and proposals during the campaign:

- Foreign affairs: on several foreign affairs-related issues, Edwards sided with either Clinton or Obama; he supported Obama on talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; he opposed Clinton’s support for the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while agreeing with Obama that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; on the other hand, he was ready to go beyond what Clinton and Obama have proposed in terms of strategic incentives for Iran to suspend its nuclear program;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; Edwards opposed the Peru free trade agreement, and overall promoted increased protectionism to shield U.S. workers’ from the downsides of globalization. On free trade, Edwards sided with Clinton on key free trade issues: negotiating new free trade agreements and renegotiating NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Edwards, like Clinton and unlike Obama, supported the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; he opposed federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, and concurred with Obama on following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group as a guideline for a political solution in Iraq. On the other hand, he disagreed with both Clinton and Obama on the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- Universal healthcare: Edwards put forward a very comprehensive and detailed plan for universal healthcare. Clinton’s and Obama’s plan both have differences and similarities with Edwards’ plan on universal coverage for all Americans, mandatory coverage for all Americans, drugs reimportation, means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, health insurance for small business employees, and access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program;

- Immigration: Edwards, like Clinton, opposed providing driving licenses for undocumented immigrants; he agreed with both Clinton and Obama on the need for an earned legalization program for undocumented immigrants.

Popularity: 43% [?]

Ahead of the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week, we have tracked down the five key international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree:

- Defense: the candidates disagree on the size of the necessary increase of the U.S. military and veterans healthcare benefits funding;

- Foreign affairs: Clinton and Obama have strongly disagreed on several foreign affairs-related issues; Obama stated his support in favor of talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; Clinton supported the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while Obama asserted that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; the two candidates also disagree on normalizing relations with Cuba and having the U.S. join the International Criminal Court;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; although both candidates supported the Peru free trade agreement, they disagree on key free trade issues: negotiate new free trade agreements and renegotiate NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Clinton and Obama have had differences over the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; the two candidates also disagree on the way forward on Iraq, either by federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, or by following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, as well as the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- War on terrorism: Obama made a strongly dissenting point against the rest of the candidates’ field by ruling out using nuclear weapons against terrorist leaders like Osama Bin Laden, while other candidates refused to discuss it;

Popularity: 46% [?]

With the Super-Tuesday primaries contest only a week away, there are more than differences of leadership style and personality between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The top Democratic candidates to the presidential nomination have actual disagreements on five key domestic issues:

- Universal healthcare: universal coverage for all Americans, mandatory coverage for all Americans, drugs reimportation, means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, health insurance for small business employees, access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program;

- Immigration: support for driving licenses for undocumented immigrants, scope of earned legalization program;

- Home ownership: remedies to the subprimes crisis;

- Retirement: Raising or eliminating the cap on Social Security taxable income to prevent benefit cuts for future retirees, levying Social Security taxes on income revenues higher than $200,000/year;

- Government accountability and transparency: accepting or refusing lobby money to fund his or her campaign.

Popularity: 50% [?]

Select2008.com’s activity has accelerated ahead of the South Carolina’s primaries as a vast number of users turn to our site for help to choose their favorite candidate for the 2008 primaries. The website’s live polling statistics are now starting to yield some interesting facts. The audience’s geographic distribution is still concentrated on the West Coast (California and Washington states), New York, New England, and the Chicago area. Therefore, Select2008’s insights on candidates’ popularity and most divisive issues will be most relevant for the February 5 Super Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards and Barack Obama are head-to-head and ahead of Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama has a commanding lead on Economic and International Affairs, while Hillary Clinton edges ahead on Energy and Environment and Education. John Edwards is ahead on Defense (including the war in Iraq) and Healthcare.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is slightly ahead of John McCain. Rudy Giuliani seems to be #2 on most issues and therefore comes out ahead of all other candidates overall. Rudy Giuliani also leads in Energy and Environment. John McCain is strong on Homeland Security and in a dead heat on Economy with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Rudy Giualini and Mitt Romney are head to head on Government Reform (including tax cuts). Mike Huckabee leads on