Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

The top five most contentious issues on Select2008 paint an interesting picture of the electorate ahead of the important Texas and Ohio primaries on Tuesday. These issues are among the many polling results gathered on the Select2008 website, as users compare the presidential candidates to make up their minds, in four distinct face offs: Clinton vs. Obama, McCain vs. Huckabee, Clinton vs. McCain, and Obama vs. McCain.

First, key social issues – same-sex marriage and abortion – remain as divisive as ever in the electorate. These issues are currently eclipsed by the partisan nature of the primaries. However, as we enter the general election season, we expect these issues will come back to the forefront.

- Marriage should only be defined as the union between a man and a woman – 46% agree and 46% disagree out of 3,200+ votes and 900+ votes last week

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Abortion is the wrong choice except in cases of incest, rape and to save the life of the mother – 44% agree and 49% disagree out of 1,700+ votes and 700+ votes last week

- Prohibit same-sex marriage, but allow domestic partnerships providing to same-sex partners the same benefits as marriage 44% agree and 48% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 750+ votes last week

The issues of illegal immigration and earned legalization process are also very sensitive. It will be interesting to see how this issue plays with the electorate, not only at the presidential level, but also at State and local levels, especially in border states. McCain’s about face on the matter does not shield him from criticism on his right.

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration – 47% agree and 43% disagree out of 10,400+ votes and 2,000+votes last week

Finally, the issue of Iraq is coming back to the forefront. The apparent and relative improvement of the situation on the ground is reflected in voters’ opinion. If the conflict stays on this track, Iraq will increasingly play to McCain’s strengths vs. Clinton’s and Obama’s anti-war stances.

- The U.S. is making progress in Iraq – 43% agree and 47% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 800+ votes last week

Popularity: 97% [?]

Illegal Immigration and waterboarding top voters’ agenda on Homeland Security for the 2008 primaries. The following top-five-issue sample is based on over 250,000 votes over the last week:

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants – 47% agree and 46% disagree

- Commit to build the already approved 700-mile fence on the U.S.-Mexico border – 45% agree and 46% disagree

- Stop granting U.S. citizenship to babies born in the U.S. from illegal immigrants – 49% agree and 43% disagree

- Support the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding, in the war on terrorism – 44% agree and 43% disagree

- Cut highway funds for States that issue driving licenses to undocumented immigrants - 45% agree and 43% disagree

Popularity: 34% [?]

Five issues stir up voters on Select2008, each with defining policy questions:

- Immigration Reform

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Healthcare

- Achieve universal healthcare as quickly as possible

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Social Issues

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Support ban on partial birth abortion

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, is right to ask to maintain the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy

- Foreign Affairs and War on Terrorism

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 46% [?]

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are furiously campaigning to rally voters for the Super Tuesday vote. They will spend an record $19 million in ads over the next few days to sway voters in the 22 States that hold a primary this Tuesday.

With just a few days ahead and a surge in votes on Select2008 over the last few days, Obama appears to be leading over Clinton on the issues, 49% to 45%. A closer look reveals that Obama’s positions and proposals lead on the key issues of defense, economy, government reform, healthcare, and international affairs. Clinton leads on homeland security and education.

Popularity: 64% [?]

Today’s hottest questions mix domestic and international affairs and demonstrate that voters consider the candidacies’ multiple facets to make up their minds:

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Support education vouchers for private schools

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 42% [?]

Rudy Giuliani has abandoned his bid to the presidential candidacy in the aftermath of the Florida primaries and endorsed John McCain. However, his supporters might want to make up their own minds and choose between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Although other candidates are still in the race on the Republican side - namely Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul - McCain and Romney have really jumped ahead of the pack, so we’ll focus on them for now.

We highlight below the key policy issues that will help Giuliani’s supporters choose between McCain and Romney for the remaining Republican primaries and Super Tuesday:

- Energy and environment: Giuliani agreed with Romney and disagreed with McCain on global warming and energy independence, including supporting biofuels and corn ethanol subsidies, tapping into domestic sources of oil such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), setting up a Federal market to trade carbon emissions caps, and increasing research funding for alternative energy technology;

- Healthcare: Giuliani’s healthcare plan and support for market-based approaches to lower healthcare costs and to increase access to health insurance has differences and similarities with McCain and Romney’s proposals, such as drug reimportation, setting up a means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, creating a tax deduction for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, a tax deduction for healthcare costs, or subsidies to high-cost and low-income individuals to supplement tax credits and Medicaid;

- Homeland Security and war on terrorism: Giuliani and McCain have both boasted his leadership skills, as well as military and foreign affairs experience, to propel their candidacies; however Giuliani disagreed more often with McCain than with Romney on this issue, in particular on maintaining the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, supporting the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding,, and supporting the NSA‘s warrantless wiretapping program; on the other hand, Giuliani and Romney had their strongest disagreements on illegal immigration, for instance on Federal grants to sanctuary cities.

- Social issues: Giuliani’s stance on conservative social issues undermined his candidacy; however, even McCain and Romney disagree on gun control and on whether to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution on marriage, defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; their support of a pro-life position and record on the question also differ;

- Taxes: Giuliani disagreed with both McCain and Romney on the Alternative Minimum Tax; Giuliani proposed steep tax cuts, which provide common grounds with both McCain and Romney, although these candidates differ on both on tax incentives to corporations and income tax; they also have not both signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

Popularity: 68% [?]

John Edwards has just announced that he is ending his bid for the presidential candidacy. This announcement leaves Edwards’ supporters to decide who they will vote for and choose for the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week. We have tracked down in previous posts the five key domestic and international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree.

We are now narrowing the field of key issues for Edwards supporters, based on his positions and proposals during the campaign:

- Foreign affairs: on several foreign affairs-related issues, Edwards sided with either Clinton or Obama; he supported Obama on talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; he opposed Clinton’s support for the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while agreeing with Obama that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; on the other hand, he was ready to go beyond what Clinton and Obama have proposed in terms of strategic incentives for Iran to suspend its nuclear program;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; Edwards opposed the Peru free trade agreement, and overall promoted increased protectionism to shield U.S. workers’ from the downsides of globalization. On free trade, Edwards sided with Clinton on key free trade issues: negotiating new free trade agreements and renegotiating NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Edwards, like Clinton and unlike Obama, supported the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; he opposed federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, and concurred with Obama on following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group as a guideline for a political solution in Iraq. On the other hand, he disagreed with both Clinton and Obama on the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- Universal healthcare: Edwards put forward a very comprehensive and detailed plan for universal healthcare. Clinton’s and Obama’s plan both have differences and similarities with Edwards’ plan on universal coverage for all Americans, mandatory coverage for all Americans, drugs reimportation, means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, health insurance for small business employees, and access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program;

- Immigration: Edwards, like Clinton, opposed providing driving licenses for undocumented immigrants; he agreed with both Clinton and Obama on the need for an earned legalization program for undocumented immigrants.

Popularity: 48% [?]

With the Florida primaries in the rear view mirror and ahead of next week’s Super-Tuesday primaries, Select2008’s five most disputed questions all regard domestic issues: immigration, gun control, abortion, and universal healthcare.

Today’s five hottest questions are:

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- States should determine their own abortion laws and not have them dictated by judicial mandate

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

Popularity: 29% [?]

Ahead of the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week, we have tracked down the five key international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree:

- Defense: the candidates disagree on the size of the necessary increase of the U.S. military and veterans healthcare benefits funding;

- Foreign affairs: Clinton and Obama have strongly disagreed on several foreign affairs-related issues; Obama stated his support in favor of talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; Clinton supported the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while Obama asserted that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; the two candidates also disagree on normalizing relations with Cuba and having the U.S. join the International Criminal Court;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; although both candidates supported the Peru free trade agreement, they disagree on key free trade issues: negotiate new free trade agreements and renegotiate NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Clinton and Obama have had differences over the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; the two candidates also disagree on the way forward on Iraq, either by federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, or by following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, as well as the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- War on terrorism: Obama made a strongly dissenting point against the rest of the candidates’ field by ruling out using nuclear weapons against terrorist leaders like Osama Bin Laden, while other candidates refused to discuss it;

Popularity: 54% [?]