Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

The War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism have been looming large over the primaries and presidential campaign.

Interestingly, extremist and populist positions, such as leaving Iraq within 6 months, have vanished. The controversy now focuses on how best to stabilize Iraq, draw down the number of U.S. troops deployed over there, and adjust military expenses to new economic realities.

As for the War on Terrorism, closing the Guantanamo Bay prison camp and banning torture in counter-insurgency and intelligence activities draw the most controversy.

The following sample is based on over 450,000 votes on Select2008.com over the last few weeks:

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq‘s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces - 48% agree and 43% disagree

- Reduce the U.S. military budget - 49% agree and 43% disagree

- The U.S. is making progress in Iraq - 39% agree and 50% disagree

- Increase U.S. aid to Iraqi refugees- 39% agree and 42% disagree

- Support indefinite incarceration in Guantanamo Bay for terrorists - 39% agree and 46% disagree

- The U.S. Congress should stop funding the war in Iraq - 54% agree and 39% disagree

- Ban the use of torture by American intelligence and law enforcement officers - 51% agree and 38% disagree

Popularity: 25% [?]

The whole gamut of so-called divisive social issues have bubbled up to the top of Select2008.com’s live polling, based on last week’s over 300,000 votes. These issues include same-sex marriage, a constitutional amendment on marriage, partial birth abortion, the “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy and restrictions to Second Amendment rights.

Highly contentious issues still hold sway with voters – beyond traditional value voters - in the 2008 presidential election cycle. This matter of fact runs counter to the conventional wisdom that values’ influence has diminished.

If the sample below is any indication, look for social values to make a resurgence as we move into the general campaign:

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman – 47% agree and 44% disagree

- Prohibit same-sex marriage, but allow domestic partnerships providing to same-sex partners the same benefits as marriage – 42% agree and 49% disagree

- Support ban on partial birth abortion – 42% agree and 46% disagree

- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, is right to ask to maintain the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy – 43% agree and 43% disagree

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment – 50% agree and 41% disagree

Popularity: 34% [?]

Select2008.com registered over 50,000 votes over the last couple of days.

Our live polling reveals how close the race still is, just a few hours from the actual primaries:

- Obama leads over Clinton 49% to 45%;

- McCain and Romney are tied at 36% both.

Popularity: 19% [?]

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are furiously campaigning to rally voters for the Super Tuesday vote. They will spend an record $19 million in ads over the next few days to sway voters in the 22 States that hold a primary this Tuesday.

With just a few days ahead and a surge in votes on Select2008 over the last few days, Obama appears to be leading over Clinton on the issues, 49% to 45%. A closer look reveals that Obama’s positions and proposals lead on the key issues of defense, economy, government reform, healthcare, and international affairs. Clinton leads on homeland security and education.

Popularity: 58% [?]

Select2008.com’s activity has accelerated ahead of the South Carolina’s primaries as a vast number of users turn to our site for help to choose their favorite candidate for the 2008 primaries. The website’s live polling statistics are now starting to yield some interesting facts. The audience’s geographic distribution is still concentrated on the West Coast (California and Washington states), New York, New England, and the Chicago area. Therefore, Select2008’s insights on candidates’ popularity and most divisive issues will be most relevant for the February 5 Super Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards and Barack Obama are head-to-head and ahead of Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama has a commanding lead on Economic and International Affairs, while Hillary Clinton edges ahead on Energy and Environment and Education. John Edwards is ahead on Defense (including the war in Iraq) and Healthcare.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is slightly ahead of John McCain. Rudy Giuliani seems to be #2 on most issues and therefore comes out ahead of all other candidates overall. Rudy Giuliani also leads in Energy and Environment. John McCain is strong on Homeland Security and in a dead heat on Economy with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Rudy Giualini and Mitt Romney are head to head on Government Reform (including tax cuts). Mike Huckabee leads on Education.

Popularity: 61% [?]