Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

Illegal Immigration and waterboarding top voters’ agenda on Homeland Security for the 2008 primaries. The following top-five-issue sample is based on over 250,000 votes over the last week:

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants – 47% agree and 46% disagree

- Commit to build the already approved 700-mile fence on the U.S.-Mexico border – 45% agree and 46% disagree

- Stop granting U.S. citizenship to babies born in the U.S. from illegal immigrants – 49% agree and 43% disagree

- Support the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding, in the war on terrorism – 44% agree and 43% disagree

- Cut highway funds for States that issue driving licenses to undocumented immigrants - 45% agree and 43% disagree

Popularity: 29% [?]

Select2008.com registered over 50,000 votes over the last couple of days.

Our live polling reveals how close the race still is, just a few hours from the actual primaries:

- Obama leads over Clinton 49% to 45%;

- McCain and Romney are tied at 36% both.

Popularity: 19% [?]

Five issues stir up voters on Select2008, each with defining policy questions:

- Immigration Reform

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Healthcare

- Achieve universal healthcare as quickly as possible

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Social Issues

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Support ban on partial birth abortion

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, is right to ask to maintain the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy

- Foreign Affairs and War on Terrorism

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 41% [?]

• The Party Animal Either Plays Well or Fights Well - New York Times

  Call it a split between whether politics should be a pursuit of consensus or an effort to enact a party’s fundamental ideas, its core orthodoxy.

  (tags: Select2008 Select 2008 S08 Primaries democrats republican obama clinton mccain romney consensus orthodoxy politics)

• McCain Makes Headway With Conservative Wing - WSJ.com

  The Republican presidential campaigning rolls on this weekend, with Sen. John McCain working to make headway with the party’s stalwarts and Mitt Romney facing renewed attention on his Mormon faith.

  (tags: mccain romney clinton candidates select2008 S08 conservative republican democratic 2008)

• Newsvine - Polls Show Obama Closing in on Clinton

  (tags: obama clinton Select2008 polls primaries democrats)

• Obama Leading over Clinton on Select2008 ahead of Super Tuesday

  According to Select2008.com’s live polling on candidates’ proposals and positions, Obama leads over Clinton, ahead of the Super-Tuesday primaries, 49% to 45%. A closer look reveals that Obama’s positions and proposals lead on the key issues of defense,

  (tags: Obama Defense Economy Education Government Reform Healthcare Clinton Homeland_Security International_Affairs Select2008)

• McCain Looks Confident; Democratic Race Tightens - New York Times

  (tags: mccain clinton obama primaries presidential elections super-tuesday)

• Stealthy Groups Shake Up Races - WSJ.com

  Sophisticated campaign organizations have sprung up amid the many groups pumping money into the presidential primaries. They aren’t subject to limits on campaign contributions and can directly ask people to vote for and against candidates.

  (tags: 2008 elections 501(c)4 organization republican democrats primaries select2008)

• Top of the Ticket : Los Angeles Times : Breaking News: Pro-Clinton push poll erupts in California

  Breaking News: Pro-Clinton push poll erupts in California

  (tags: 2008 clinton obama primaries push-poll Select2008)

Popularity: 15% [?]

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are furiously campaigning to rally voters for the Super Tuesday vote. They will spend an record $19 million in ads over the next few days to sway voters in the 22 States that hold a primary this Tuesday.

With just a few days ahead and a surge in votes on Select2008 over the last few days, Obama appears to be leading over Clinton on the issues, 49% to 45%. A closer look reveals that Obama’s positions and proposals lead on the key issues of defense, economy, government reform, healthcare, and international affairs. Clinton leads on homeland security and education.

Popularity: 57% [?]

The field of presidential hopefuls has narrowed down this week with Edwards and Giuliani bowing out of the race. However, the race is more competitive than ever, ahead of next week’s Super Tuesday primaries.

To help users make up their minds in these more confrontational times, we are launching four Primaries Face Offs on Select2008:

Users can still compare and choose among more than two candidates, especially useful for Republican and Independent voters.

Users can also refer to some of our recent blog posts on the Democratic Face Off and the Republican Face Off, as well as our posts to help Edwards and Giuliani supporters make up their minds.

Popularity: 32% [?]

Today’s hottest questions mix domestic and international affairs and demonstrate that voters consider the candidacies’ multiple facets to make up their minds:

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Support education vouchers for private schools

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 39% [?]

Rudy Giuliani has abandoned his bid to the presidential candidacy in the aftermath of the Florida primaries and endorsed John McCain. However, his supporters might want to make up their own minds and choose between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Although other candidates are still in the race on the Republican side - namely Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul - McCain and Romney have really jumped ahead of the pack, so we’ll focus on them for now.

We highlight below the key policy issues that will help Giuliani’s supporters choose between McCain and Romney for the remaining Republican primaries and Super Tuesday:

- Energy and environment: Giuliani agreed with Romney and disagreed with McCain on global warming and energy independence, including supporting biofuels and corn ethanol subsidies, tapping into domestic sources of oil such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), setting up a Federal market to trade carbon emissions caps, and increasing research funding for alternative energy technology;

- Healthcare: Giuliani’s healthcare plan and support for market-based approaches to lower healthcare costs and to increase access to health insurance has differences and similarities with McCain and Romney’s proposals, such as drug reimportation, setting up a means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, creating a tax deduction for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, a tax deduction for healthcare costs, or subsidies to high-cost and low-income individuals to supplement tax credits and Medicaid;

- Homeland Security and war on terrorism: Giuliani and McCain have both boasted his leadership skills, as well as military and foreign affairs experience, to propel their candidacies; however Giuliani disagreed more often with McCain than with Romney on this issue, in particular on maintaining the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, supporting the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding,, and supporting the NSA‘s warrantless wiretapping program; on the other hand, Giuliani and Romney had their strongest disagreements on illegal immigration, for instance on Federal grants to sanctuary cities.

- Social issues: Giuliani’s stance on conservative social issues undermined his candidacy; however, even McCain and Romney disagree on gun control and on whether to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution on marriage, defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; their support of a pro-life position and record on the question also differ;

- Taxes: Giuliani disagreed with both McCain and Romney on the Alternative Minimum Tax; Giuliani proposed steep tax cuts, which provide common grounds with both McCain and Romney, although these candidates differ on both on tax incentives to corporations and income tax; they also have not both signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

Popularity: 64% [?]

John Edwards has just announced that he is ending his bid for the presidential candidacy. This announcement leaves Edwards’ supporters to decide who they will vote for and choose for the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week. We have tracked down in previous posts the five key domestic and international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree.

We are now narrowing the field of key issues for Edwards supporters, based on his positions and proposals during the campaign:

- Foreign affairs: on several foreign affairs-related issues, Edwards sided with either Clinton or Obama; he supported Obama on talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; he opposed Clinton’s support for the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while agreeing with Obama that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; on the other hand, he was ready to go beyond what Clinton and Obama have proposed in terms of strategic incentives for Iran to suspend its nuclear program;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; Edwards opposed the Peru free trade agreement, and overall promoted increased protectionism to shield U.S. workers’ from the downsides of globalization. On free trade, Edwards sided with Clinton on key free trade issues: negotiating new free trade agreements and renegotiating NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Edwards, like Clinton and unlike Obama, supported the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; he opposed federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, and concurred with Obama on following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group as a guideline for a political solution in Iraq. On the other hand, he disagreed with both Clinton and Obama on the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- Universal healthcare: Edwards put forward a very comprehensive and detailed plan for universal healthcare. Clinton’s and Obama’s plan both have differences and similarities with Edwards’ plan on universal coverage for all Americans, mandatory coverage for all Americans, drugs reimportation, means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, health insurance for small business employees, and access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program;

- Immigration: Edwards, like Clinton, opposed providing driving licenses for undocumented immigrants; he agreed with both Clinton and Obama on the need for an earned legalization program for undocumented immigrants.

Popularity: 43% [?]

With the Florida primaries in the rear view mirror and ahead of next week’s Super-Tuesday primaries, Select2008’s five most disputed questions all regard domestic issues: immigration, gun control, abortion, and universal healthcare.

Today’s five hottest questions are:

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- States should determine their own abortion laws and not have them dictated by judicial mandate

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare