Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

The top five most contentious issues on Select2008 paint an interesting picture of the electorate ahead of the important Texas and Ohio primaries on Tuesday. These issues are among the many polling results gathered on the Select2008 website, as users compare the presidential candidates to make up their minds, in four distinct face offs: Clinton vs. Obama, McCain vs. Huckabee, Clinton vs. McCain, and Obama vs. McCain.

First, key social issues – same-sex marriage and abortion – remain as divisive as ever in the electorate. These issues are currently eclipsed by the partisan nature of the primaries. However, as we enter the general election season, we expect these issues will come back to the forefront.

- Marriage should only be defined as the union between a man and a woman – 46% agree and 46% disagree out of 3,200+ votes and 900+ votes last week

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Abortion is the wrong choice except in cases of incest, rape and to save the life of the mother – 44% agree and 49% disagree out of 1,700+ votes and 700+ votes last week

- Prohibit same-sex marriage, but allow domestic partnerships providing to same-sex partners the same benefits as marriage 44% agree and 48% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 750+ votes last week

The issues of illegal immigration and earned legalization process are also very sensitive. It will be interesting to see how this issue plays with the electorate, not only at the presidential level, but also at State and local levels, especially in border states. McCain’s about face on the matter does not shield him from criticism on his right.

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration – 47% agree and 43% disagree out of 10,400+ votes and 2,000+votes last week

Finally, the issue of Iraq is coming back to the forefront. The apparent and relative improvement of the situation on the ground is reflected in voters’ opinion. If the conflict stays on this track, Iraq will increasingly play to McCain’s strengths vs. Clinton’s and Obama’s anti-war stances.

- The U.S. is making progress in Iraq – 43% agree and 47% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 800+ votes last week

Popularity: 99% [?]

The whole gamut of so-called divisive social issues have bubbled up to the top of Select2008.com’s live polling, based on last week’s over 300,000 votes. These issues include same-sex marriage, a constitutional amendment on marriage, partial birth abortion, the “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy and restrictions to Second Amendment rights.

Highly contentious issues still hold sway with voters – beyond traditional value voters - in the 2008 presidential election cycle. This matter of fact runs counter to the conventional wisdom that values’ influence has diminished.

If the sample below is any indication, look for social values to make a resurgence as we move into the general campaign:

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman – 47% agree and 44% disagree

- Prohibit same-sex marriage, but allow domestic partnerships providing to same-sex partners the same benefits as marriage – 42% agree and 49% disagree

- Support ban on partial birth abortion – 42% agree and 46% disagree

- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, is right to ask to maintain the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy – 43% agree and 43% disagree

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment – 50% agree and 41% disagree

Popularity: 34% [?]

Five issues stir up voters on Select2008, each with defining policy questions:

- Immigration Reform

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Healthcare

- Achieve universal healthcare as quickly as possible

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Social Issues

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Support ban on partial birth abortion

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, is right to ask to maintain the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy

- Foreign Affairs and War on Terrorism

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 41% [?]

Today’s hottest questions mix domestic and international affairs and demonstrate that voters consider the candidacies’ multiple facets to make up their minds:

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Support education vouchers for private schools

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 39% [?]

With the Florida primaries in the rear view mirror and ahead of next week’s Super-Tuesday primaries, Select2008’s five most disputed questions all regard domestic issues: immigration, gun control, abortion, and universal healthcare.

Today’s five hottest questions are:

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- States should determine their own abortion laws and not have them dictated by judicial mandate

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

Popularity: 28% [?]

The Florida primaries are turning the race for the Republican nomination into a two-man race between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Although the two candidates emphasize their differences of personality, leadership style and record, both candidates disagree on five key policy issues:

- Energy and environment: both candidates disagree on the remedies to global warming and energy independence, such as supporting biofuels and corn ethanol subsidies, tapping into domestic sources of oil such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), setting up a Federal market to trade carbon emissions caps, and increasing research funding for alternative energy technology;

- Healthcare: both candidates disagree on market-based approaches to lower healthcare costs, to increase competition in the healthcare market and to increase access to health insurance, such as drug reimportation, setting up a means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, creating a tax deduction for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, a tax deduction for healthcare costs, or subsidies to high-cost and low-income individuals to supplement tax credits and Medicaid;

- Homeland Security and war on terrorism: both candidates disagree on acceptable means to the war on terrorism, such as maintaining the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, supporting the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding,, and supporting the NSA‘s warrantless wiretapping program;

- Social issues: the candidates disagree on gun control and on whether to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution on marriage, defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; their support of a pro-life position and record on the question also differ;

- Taxes: the candidates’ proposed tax policies are different both on tax incentives to corporations and income tax; they also have not both signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

Popularity: 46% [?]

Select2008.com’s activity has accelerated ahead of the South Carolina’s primaries as a vast number of users turn to our site for help to choose their favorite candidate for the 2008 primaries. The website’s live polling statistics are now starting to yield some interesting facts. The audience’s geographic distribution is still concentrated on the West Coast (California and Washington states), New York, New England, and the Chicago area. Therefore, Select2008’s insights on candidates’ popularity and most divisive issues will be most relevant for the February 5 Super Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards and Barack Obama are head-to-head and ahead of Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama has a commanding lead on Economic and International Affairs, while Hillary Clinton edges ahead on Energy and Environment and Education. John Edwards is ahead on Defense (including the war in Iraq) and Healthcare.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is slightly ahead of John McCain. Rudy Giuliani seems to be #2 on most issues and therefore comes out ahead of all other candidates overall. Rudy Giuliani also leads in Energy and Environment. John McCain is strong on Homeland Security and in a dead heat on Economy with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Rudy Giualini and Mitt Romney are head to head on Government Reform (including tax cuts). Mike Huckabee leads on Education.

Popularity: 61% [?]

Ahead of the 2008 South Carolina primaries, today’s top five hottest questions highlight voters’ concerns with traditional social issues (such as gun control), the war in Iraq and on terrorism, and socio-economic concerns related to the government’s involvement in healthcare and education matters.

The top five hottest questions are:

- Congress should authorize any preemptive attack in the war on terrorism

- Create a tax credit to cover for the educational expenses of parents who decide to home school their children

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq‘s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Allow States to devise their own path to universal healthcare

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

Looking at the top 50 hottest questions, the most disputed issues in this 2008 primaries season currently regard:

- Universal healthcare

- War on terrorism

- Taxes

- Second Amendment rights

- Immigration reform

Popularity: 30% [?]

As noted in a previous post, Rudy Giuliani still has an edge when it comes to connecting with voters on issues and proposals. If he managed to maintain his lead over John McCain, he would still have a good shot at coming back to the top of the pack in the Florida primary and the Super Tuesday contest.

Rudy Giuliani‘s position might nonetheless be weaker than it seems: although he ends up being ahead of other candidates overall, his lead stems from being strong on all issues, but without necessarily leading. Although, this seems to indicate that his candidacy is overall well-rounded, it might prevent him from differentiating from the other candidates, as Huckabee has done it on social issues for instance.

However, policy and programmatic positions are only one aspect of the political equation. Giuliani‘s lower profile over the last few weeks might have hurt his exposure in the media beyond recovery.

Popularity: 25% [?]

Second Amendment rights are dear and near the heart of Republican voters. It is a contentious issue in this year’s primaries. Two leading contenders for the Republican nomination –