Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

The top five most contentious issues on Select2008 paint an interesting picture of the electorate ahead of the important Texas and Ohio primaries on Tuesday. These issues are among the many polling results gathered on the Select2008 website, as users compare the presidential candidates to make up their minds, in four distinct face offs: Clinton vs. Obama, McCain vs. Huckabee, Clinton vs. McCain, and Obama vs. McCain.

First, key social issues – same-sex marriage and abortion – remain as divisive as ever in the electorate. These issues are currently eclipsed by the partisan nature of the primaries. However, as we enter the general election season, we expect these issues will come back to the forefront.

- Marriage should only be defined as the union between a man and a woman – 46% agree and 46% disagree out of 3,200+ votes and 900+ votes last week

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Abortion is the wrong choice except in cases of incest, rape and to save the life of the mother – 44% agree and 49% disagree out of 1,700+ votes and 700+ votes last week

- Prohibit same-sex marriage, but allow domestic partnerships providing to same-sex partners the same benefits as marriage 44% agree and 48% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 750+ votes last week

The issues of illegal immigration and earned legalization process are also very sensitive. It will be interesting to see how this issue plays with the electorate, not only at the presidential level, but also at State and local levels, especially in border states. McCain’s about face on the matter does not shield him from criticism on his right.

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration – 47% agree and 43% disagree out of 10,400+ votes and 2,000+votes last week

Finally, the issue of Iraq is coming back to the forefront. The apparent and relative improvement of the situation on the ground is reflected in voters’ opinion. If the conflict stays on this track, Iraq will increasingly play to McCain’s strengths vs. Clinton’s and Obama’s anti-war stances.

- The U.S. is making progress in Iraq – 43% agree and 47% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 800+ votes last week

Popularity: 97% [?]

The whole gamut of so-called divisive social issues have bubbled up to the top of Select2008.com’s live polling, based on last week’s over 300,000 votes. These issues include same-sex marriage, a constitutional amendment on marriage, partial birth abortion, the “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy and restrictions to Second Amendment rights.

Highly contentious issues still hold sway with voters – beyond traditional value voters - in the 2008 presidential election cycle. This matter of fact runs counter to the conventional wisdom that values’ influence has diminished.

If the sample below is any indication, look for social values to make a resurgence as we move into the general campaign:

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman – 47% agree and 44% disagree

- Prohibit same-sex marriage, but allow domestic partnerships providing to same-sex partners the same benefits as marriage – 42% agree and 49% disagree

- Support ban on partial birth abortion – 42% agree and 46% disagree

- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, is right to ask to maintain the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy – 43% agree and 43% disagree

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment – 50% agree and 41% disagree

Popularity: 38% [?]

Five issues stir up voters on Select2008, each with defining policy questions:

- Immigration Reform

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Healthcare

- Achieve universal healthcare as quickly as possible

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Social Issues

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Support ban on partial birth abortion

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, is right to ask to maintain the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy

- Foreign Affairs and War on Terrorism

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 47% [?]

Rudy Giuliani has abandoned his bid to the presidential candidacy in the aftermath of the Florida primaries and endorsed John McCain. However, his supporters might want to make up their own minds and choose between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Although other candidates are still in the race on the Republican side - namely Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul - McCain and Romney have really jumped ahead of the pack, so we’ll focus on them for now.

We highlight below the key policy issues that will help Giuliani’s supporters choose between McCain and Romney for the remaining Republican primaries and Super Tuesday:

- Energy and environment: Giuliani agreed with Romney and disagreed with McCain on global warming and energy independence, including supporting biofuels and corn ethanol subsidies, tapping into domestic sources of oil such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), setting up a Federal market to trade carbon emissions caps, and increasing research funding for alternative energy technology;

- Healthcare: Giuliani’s healthcare plan and support for market-based approaches to lower healthcare costs and to increase access to health insurance has differences and similarities with McCain and Romney’s proposals, such as drug reimportation, setting up a means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, creating a tax deduction for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, a tax deduction for healthcare costs, or subsidies to high-cost and low-income individuals to supplement tax credits and Medicaid;

- Homeland Security and war on terrorism: Giuliani and McCain have both boasted his leadership skills, as well as military and foreign affairs experience, to propel their candidacies; however Giuliani disagreed more often with McCain than with Romney on this issue, in particular on maintaining the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, supporting the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding,, and supporting the NSA‘s warrantless wiretapping program; on the other hand, Giuliani and Romney had their strongest disagreements on illegal immigration, for instance on Federal grants to sanctuary cities.

- Social issues: Giuliani’s stance on conservative social issues undermined his candidacy; however, even McCain and Romney disagree on gun control and on whether to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution on marriage, defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; their support of a pro-life position and record on the question also differ;

- Taxes: Giuliani disagreed with both McCain and Romney on the Alternative Minimum Tax; Giuliani proposed steep tax cuts, which provide common grounds with both McCain and Romney, although these candidates differ on both on tax incentives to corporations and income tax; they also have not both signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

Popularity: 69% [?]

With the Florida primaries in the rear view mirror and ahead of next week’s Super-Tuesday primaries, Select2008’s five most disputed questions all regard domestic issues: immigration, gun control, abortion, and universal healthcare.

Today’s five hottest questions are:

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- States should determine their own abortion laws and not have them dictated by judicial mandate

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

Popularity: 30% [?]

The Florida primaries are turning the race for the Republican nomination into a two-man race between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Although the two candidates emphasize their differences of personality, leadership style and record, both candidates disagree on five key policy issues:

- Energy and environment: both candidates disagree on the remedies to global warming and energy independence, such as supporting biofuels and corn ethanol subsidies, tapping into domestic sources of oil such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), setting up a Federal market to trade carbon emissions caps, and increasing research funding for alternative energy technology;

- Healthcare: both candidates disagree on market-based approaches to lower healthcare costs, to increase competition in the healthcare market and to increase access to health insurance, such as drug reimportation, setting up a means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, creating a tax deduction for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, a tax deduction for healthcare costs, or subsidies to high-cost and low-income individuals to supplement tax credits and Medicaid;

- Homeland Security and war on terrorism: both candidates disagree on acceptable means to the war on terrorism, such as maintaining the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, supporting the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding,, and supporting the NSA‘s warrantless wiretapping program;

- Social issues: the candidates disagree on gun control and on whether to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution on marriage, defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; their support of a pro-life position and record on the question also differ;

- Taxes: the candidates’ proposed tax policies are different both on tax incentives to corporations and income tax; they also have not both signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

Popularity: 50% [?]