Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are furiously campaigning to rally voters for the Super Tuesday vote. They will spend an record $19 million in ads over the next few days to sway voters in the 22 States that hold a primary this Tuesday.

With just a few days ahead and a surge in votes on Select2008 over the last few days, Obama appears to be leading over Clinton on the issues, 49% to 45%. A closer look reveals that Obama’s positions and proposals lead on the key issues of defense, economy, government reform, healthcare, and international affairs. Clinton leads on homeland security and education.

Popularity: 64% [?]

The field of presidential hopefuls has narrowed down this week with Edwards and Giuliani bowing out of the race. However, the race is more competitive than ever, ahead of next week’s Super Tuesday primaries.

To help users make up their minds in these more confrontational times, we are launching four Primaries Face Offs on Select2008:

Users can still compare and choose among more than two candidates, especially useful for Republican and Independent voters.

Users can also refer to some of our recent blog posts on the Democratic Face Off and the Republican Face Off, as well as our posts to help Edwards and Giuliani supporters make up their minds.

Popularity: 36% [?]

John Edwards has just announced that he is ending his bid for the presidential candidacy. This announcement leaves Edwards’ supporters to decide who they will vote for and choose for the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week. We have tracked down in previous posts the five key domestic and international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree.

We are now narrowing the field of key issues for Edwards supporters, based on his positions and proposals during the campaign:

- Foreign affairs: on several foreign affairs-related issues, Edwards sided with either Clinton or Obama; he supported Obama on talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; he opposed Clinton’s support for the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while agreeing with Obama that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; on the other hand, he was ready to go beyond what Clinton and Obama have proposed in terms of strategic incentives for Iran to suspend its nuclear program;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; Edwards opposed the Peru free trade agreement, and overall promoted increased protectionism to shield U.S. workers’ from the downsides of globalization. On free trade, Edwards sided with Clinton on key free trade issues: negotiating new free trade agreements and renegotiating NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Edwards, like Clinton and unlike Obama, supported the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; he opposed federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, and concurred with Obama on following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group as a guideline for a political solution in Iraq. On the other hand, he disagreed with both Clinton and Obama on the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- Universal healthcare: Edwards put forward a very comprehensive and detailed plan for universal healthcare. Clinton’s and Obama’s plan both have differences and similarities with Edwards’ plan on universal coverage for all Americans, mandatory coverage for all Americans, drugs reimportation, means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, health insurance for small business employees, and access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program;

- Immigration: Edwards, like Clinton, opposed providing driving licenses for undocumented immigrants; he agreed with both Clinton and Obama on the need for an earned legalization program for undocumented immigrants.

Popularity: 48% [?]

Ahead of the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week, we have tracked down the five key international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree:

- Defense: the candidates disagree on the size of the necessary increase of the U.S. military and veterans healthcare benefits funding;

- Foreign affairs: Clinton and Obama have strongly disagreed on several foreign affairs-related issues; Obama stated his support in favor of talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; Clinton supported the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while Obama asserted that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; the two candidates also disagree on normalizing relations with Cuba and having the U.S. join the International Criminal Court;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; although both candidates supported the Peru free trade agreement, they disagree on key free trade issues: negotiate new free trade agreements and renegotiate NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Clinton and Obama have had differences over the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; the two candidates also disagree on the way forward on Iraq, either by federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, or by following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, as well as the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- War on terrorism: Obama made a strongly dissenting point against the rest of the candidates’ field by ruling out using nuclear weapons against terrorist leaders like Osama Bin Laden, while other candidates refused to discuss it;

Popularity: 54% [?]

With the Super-Tuesday primaries contest only a week away, there are more than differences of leadership style and personality between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The top Democratic candidates to the presidential nomination have actual disagreements on five key domestic issues:

- Universal healthcare: universal coverage for all Americans, mandatory coverage for all Americans, drugs reimportation, means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, health insurance for small business employees, access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program;

- Immigration: support for driving licenses for undocumented immigrants, scope of earned legalization program;

- Home ownership: remedies to the subprimes crisis;

- Retirement: Raising or eliminating the cap on Social Security taxable income to prevent benefit cuts for future retirees, levying Social Security taxes on income revenues higher than $200,000/year;

- Government accountability and transparency: accepting or refusing lobby money to fund his or her campaign.

Popularity: 55% [?]

Select2008.com’s activity has accelerated ahead of the South Carolina’s primaries as a vast number of users turn to our site for help to choose their favorite candidate for the 2008 primaries. The website’s live polling statistics are now starting to yield some interesting facts. The audience’s geographic distribution is still concentrated on the West Coast (California and Washington states), New York, New England, and the Chicago area. Therefore, Select2008’s insights on candidates’ popularity and most divisive issues will be most relevant for the February 5 Super Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards and Barack Obama are head-to-head and ahead of Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama has a commanding lead on Economic and International Affairs, while Hillary Clinton edges ahead on Energy and Environment and Education. John Edwards is ahead on Defense (including the war in Iraq) and Healthcare.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is slightly ahead of John McCain. Rudy Giuliani seems to be #2 on most issues and therefore comes out ahead of all other candidates overall. Rudy Giuliani also leads in Energy and Environment. John McCain is strong on Homeland Security and in a dead heat on Economy with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Rudy Giualini and Mitt Romney are head to head on Government Reform (including tax cuts). Mike Huckabee leads on Education.

Popularity: 66% [?]

The Peace Conference in Annapolis has heightened the sense of urgency on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Support for Israel is unanimous among candidates, albeit with different levels of intensity. Clinton (D), Giuliani (R), McCain (R), and Obama (D) have all demanded that Palestinian leaders commit to fight terrorism and live in peace with Israel.

However, support for peace negotiations and support for a two-state outcome cut across party lines and spark contrasting views.

Giuliani (R), McCain (R)and Thompson (R) have posed two conditions for initiating negotiations with Palestinians: (i) recognition of Israel, and (ii) commitment to fight terrorism.

Edwards (D), Obama (D), and Richardson (D) have committed to become directly engaged in negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. Only Obama (D), Richardson (D) and Thompson (R) have expressly committed to a two-state outcome, while Edwards (D) described the two-state outcome as a goal worth making a “serious effort to achieve.”

Biden (D), Clinton (D), Dodd (D), and McCain (R) have all co-sponsored in 2006 the Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act, which expressed support for a two-state solution.

Nonetheless, Clinton (D) has lately promised neither personal involvement in peacemaking nor committed to a two-state outcome.

Huckabee (R) has just expressed doubts about the viability of a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine on CNN. Romney (R) has mainly focused his attention on Iran in political addresses to the Jewish community.

You can cast your votes on the U.S. support to Israel, the importance of peace in the Middle East, and the path towards peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

Popularity: 36% [?]

Free trade and globalization are bubbling up to the top of the 2008 Election issues. Citizens confront Democratic and Republican candidates alike on the side-effects of free trade, from job losses to the environment to recent safety issues. As a result, the current pending agreements with Columbia, Panama, Peru, and South Korea crystallize candidates’ support for or opposition to free trade.

The House of Representatives has just ratified the Peru Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the Senate will have to vote on ratification in the coming months. The Peru FTA is unlike any other. The Democratic leadership managed to insert in it environmental and labor protection clauses, thereby making it more ‘palatable’ to the Democratic electorate.

Nonetheless, the Peru FTA splits candidates across party lines.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama (D) and Hillary Clinton(D) are supporting it, because the FTA contains environmental and labor provisions. Bill Richardson (D) has called himself a “free trader”. On the other hand, Joe Biden (D), Christopher Dodd (D) and John Edwards (D) have come out against the Peru FTA with strong words. Mike Gravel (D) is not only against the pending FTAs, but advocates withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). Dennis Kucinich (D) has just voted against the Peru FTA.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani (R), John McCain (R), Mitt Romney (R) are all in strong favor of Peru FTA. Fred Thompson (R) also supports free trade. Mike Huckabee (R) strikes a dissonant note coming out in favor of ‘fair trade’ rather than ‘free trade’. Based on the House of Representatives’ vote roll, Tom Tancredo (R) has supported ratifying the Peru FTA and Ron Paul (R) opposed it. Duncan Hunter (R) was absent.

We have just added a question on the Peru FTA. You can now cast your vote and compare your position on this issue with candidates and friends.

Popularity: 49% [?]