Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

Rudy Giuliani has abandoned his bid to the presidential candidacy in the aftermath of the Florida primaries and endorsed John McCain. However, his supporters might want to make up their own minds and choose between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Although other candidates are still in the race on the Republican side - namely Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul - McCain and Romney have really jumped ahead of the pack, so we’ll focus on them for now.

We highlight below the key policy issues that will help Giuliani’s supporters choose between McCain and Romney for the remaining Republican primaries and Super Tuesday:

- Energy and environment: Giuliani agreed with Romney and disagreed with McCain on global warming and energy independence, including supporting biofuels and corn ethanol subsidies, tapping into domestic sources of oil such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), setting up a Federal market to trade carbon emissions caps, and increasing research funding for alternative energy technology;

- Healthcare: Giuliani’s healthcare plan and support for market-based approaches to lower healthcare costs and to increase access to health insurance has differences and similarities with McCain and Romney’s proposals, such as drug reimportation, setting up a means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, creating a tax deduction for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, a tax deduction for healthcare costs, or subsidies to high-cost and low-income individuals to supplement tax credits and Medicaid;

- Homeland Security and war on terrorism: Giuliani and McCain have both boasted his leadership skills, as well as military and foreign affairs experience, to propel their candidacies; however Giuliani disagreed more often with McCain than with Romney on this issue, in particular on maintaining the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, supporting the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding,, and supporting the NSA‘s warrantless wiretapping program; on the other hand, Giuliani and Romney had their strongest disagreements on illegal immigration, for instance on Federal grants to sanctuary cities.

- Social issues: Giuliani’s stance on conservative social issues undermined his candidacy; however, even McCain and Romney disagree on gun control and on whether to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution on marriage, defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; their support of a pro-life position and record on the question also differ;

- Taxes: Giuliani disagreed with both McCain and Romney on the Alternative Minimum Tax; Giuliani proposed steep tax cuts, which provide common grounds with both McCain and Romney, although these candidates differ on both on tax incentives to corporations and income tax; they also have not both signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

Popularity: 69% [?]

Select2008.com’s activity has accelerated ahead of the South Carolina’s primaries as a vast number of users turn to our site for help to choose their favorite candidate for the 2008 primaries. The website’s live polling statistics are now starting to yield some interesting facts. The audience’s geographic distribution is still concentrated on the West Coast (California and Washington states), New York, New England, and the Chicago area. Therefore, Select2008’s insights on candidates’ popularity and most divisive issues will be most relevant for the February 5 Super Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards and Barack Obama are head-to-head and ahead of Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama has a commanding lead on Economic and International Affairs, while Hillary Clinton edges ahead on Energy and Environment and Education. John Edwards is ahead on Defense (including the war in Iraq) and Healthcare.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is slightly ahead of John McCain. Rudy Giuliani seems to be #2 on most issues and therefore comes out ahead of all other candidates overall. Rudy Giuliani also leads in Energy and Environment. John McCain is strong on Homeland Security and in a dead heat on Economy with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Rudy Giualini and Mitt Romney are head to head on Government Reform (including tax cuts). Mike Huckabee leads on Education.

Popularity: 67% [?]

As noted in a previous post, Rudy Giuliani still has an edge when it comes to connecting with voters on issues and proposals. If he managed to maintain his lead over John McCain, he would still have a good shot at coming back to the top of the pack in the Florida primary and the Super Tuesday contest.

Rudy Giuliani‘s position might nonetheless be weaker than it seems: although he ends up being ahead of other candidates overall, his lead stems from being strong on all issues, but without necessarily leading. Although, this seems to indicate that his candidacy is overall well-rounded, it might prevent him from differentiating from the other candidates, as Huckabee has done it on social issues for instance.

However, policy and programmatic positions are only one aspect of the political equation. Giuliani‘s lower profile over the last few weeks might have hurt his exposure in the media beyond recovery.

Popularity: 27% [?]

The Peace Conference in Annapolis has heightened the sense of urgency on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Support for Israel is unanimous among candidates, albeit with different levels of intensity. Clinton (D), Giuliani (R), McCain (R), and Obama (D) have all demanded that Palestinian leaders commit to fight terrorism and live in peace with Israel.

However, support for peace negotiations and support for a two-state outcome cut across party lines and spark contrasting views.

Giuliani (R), McCain (R)and Thompson (R) have posed two conditions for initiating negotiations with Palestinians: (i) recognition of Israel, and (ii) commitment to fight terrorism.

Edwards (D), Obama (D), and Richardson (D) have committed to become directly engaged in negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. Only Obama (D), Richardson (D) and Thompson (R) have expressly committed to a two-state outcome, while Edwards (D) described the two-state outcome as a goal worth making a “serious effort to achieve.”

Biden (D), Clinton (D), Dodd (D), and McCain (R) have all co-sponsored in 2006 the Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act, which expressed support for a two-state solution.

Nonetheless, Clinton (D) has lately promised neither personal involvement in peacemaking nor committed to a two-state outcome.

Huckabee (R) has just expressed doubts about the viability of a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine on CNN. Romney (R) has mainly focused his attention on Iran in political addresses to the Jewish community.

You can cast your votes on the U.S. support to Israel, the importance of peace in the Middle East, and the path towards peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

Popularity: 37% [?]

Second Amendment rights are dear and near the heart of Republican voters. It is a contentious issue in this year’s primaries. Two leading contenders for the Republican nomination – Mitt Romney and Rudolph Giuliani – have a mixed record on gun rights and gun control, at least in the view of staunch pro-gun rights supporters and despite efforts to distance themselves from earlier positions. As Mayor of New York City, Rudolph Giuliani implemented strict gun control to curb violent crimes. As Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, was also a strong supporter of gun control.

The Supreme Court of the United States has just agreed to review the District of Columbia‘s decades-old handgun ban. By agreeing to review a lower court decision that struck down the District’s ban and affirmed Second Amendment rights for individuals, the Supreme Court will have an opportunity to clarify the law on individual rights to gun ownership and constitutional protection against State and local government restrictions.

Rudolph Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson stated their support of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to review the case. The three candidates also expressed their support of striking down D.C.’s gun control law. John McCain has not released any statement on the Supreme Court announcement but has co-sponsored in the past a law “to lift a ban on the law abiding citizens of the District of Columbia from exercising their Constitutional right to bear arms”. Tom Tancredo also expressed support a few weeks ago for striking down the D.C. gun control law.

This Supreme Court announcement was also an opportunity for conservative candidates to reaffirm their intent to nominate strict constructionist judges.

Democratic candidates have been mute on this topic. Most Democratic candidates support gun control laws or dodge the question. Bill Richardson stands as the outlier on this issue, having been life-long NRA member.

You can cast your votes on Second Amendment issues, such as the D.C. gun control law, NRA membership for candidates, waiting periods for gun purchases, and the multiple forms of gun control. You can also cast your votes on nominating strict constructionist judges.

Popularity: 26% [?]

Free trade and globalization are bubbling up to the top of the 2008 Election issues. Citizens confront Democratic and Republican candidates alike on the side-effects of free trade, from job losses to the environment to recent safety issues. As a result, the current pending agreements with Columbia, Panama, Peru, and South Korea crystallize candidates’ support for or opposition to free trade.

The House of Representatives has just ratified the Peru Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the Senate will have to vote on ratification in the coming months. The Peru FTA is unlike any other. The Democratic leadership managed to insert in it environmental and labor protection clauses, thereby making it more ‘palatable’ to the Democratic electorate.

Nonetheless, the Peru FTA splits candidates across party lines.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama (D) and Hillary Clinton(D) are supporting it, because the FTA contains environmental and labor provisions. Bill Richardson (D) has called himself a “free trader”. On the other hand, Joe Biden (D), Christopher Dodd (D) and John Edwards (D) have come out against the Peru FTA with strong words. Mike Gravel (D) is not only against the pending FTAs, but advocates withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). Dennis Kucinich (D) has just voted against the Peru FTA.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani (R), John McCain (R), Mitt Romney (R) are all in strong favor of Peru FTA. Fred Thompson (R) also supports free trade. Mike Huckabee (R) strikes a dissonant note coming out in favor of ‘fair trade’ rather than ‘free trade’. Based on the House of Representatives’ vote roll, Tom Tancredo (R) has supported ratifying the Peru FTA and Ron Paul (R) opposed it. Duncan Hunter (R) was absent.

We have just added a question on the Peru FTA. You can now cast your vote and compare your position on this issue with candidates and friends.

Popularity: 50% [?]