Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

McCain and Obama traded barbs over the last couple of days on Al Qaeda, Iran, Iraq, and their respective experience and judgment in National Security. Senator McCain went back and forth over the last couple of days about Iraq, Iran, Al Qaeda, the broader issue of radical Islam and the war on terror.

His comments on the Iran-Al Qaeda relationship incensed the Democratic blogosphere, which qualified them as a “gaffe”. Obama also took advantage of a scheduled talk in North Carolina to criticize his confusion and undermine his alleged national security experience.

Some bloggers and reporters seem to indicate though that his connection seems more of a gray area. Regardless, his campaign went back at Obama, pounced on the supposed connection and highlighted McCain’s alleged experience in foreign affairs.

This clash on the 5^th anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq gives an opportunity to revisit the top questions on the broader Middle East. Iran is indeed a key concern. Americans seem eager to avoid repeating the process that led them into Iraq. Al Qaeda remains also a key concern:

• Rule out using force with Iran – 39% agree and 47% disagree based on 1,000 votes
• Congress should authorize any preemptive or strategic attack in Iran – 45% agree and 36% disagree on 900 votes
• Withdraw all U.S. troops from the Middle East – 37% agree and 51% disagree based on 800 votes
• The Iranian Revolutionary Guard should be labeled as ‘terrorist organization’ – 27% agree and 29% disagree based on 2.500 votes
• The next President should rule out using nuclear weapons against terrorist leaders like Osama Bin Laden – 60% agree and 32% disagree based on 11,500 votes

Popularity: 89% [?]

Yesterday, Barack Obama made a speech in Philadelphia yesterday about Reverend Wright, race and religion.

You can find the entire speech on the Select2008 Youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/Select2008

The response to Obama’s speech on the blogosphere is overwhelming. Will this speech help him preserve his lead in the Clinton vs. Obama Face Off? Will the speech help Obama catch up with Clinton in Pennsylvania, who according to latest polls is edging over?

Popularity: 83% [?]

The top five most contentious issues on Select2008 paint an interesting picture of the electorate ahead of the important Texas and Ohio primaries on Tuesday. These issues are among the many polling results gathered on the Select2008 website, as users compare the presidential candidates to make up their minds, in four distinct face offs: Clinton vs. Obama, McCain vs. Huckabee, Clinton vs. McCain, and Obama vs. McCain.

First, key social issues – same-sex marriage and abortion – remain as divisive as ever in the electorate. These issues are currently eclipsed by the partisan nature of the primaries. However, as we enter the general election season, we expect these issues will come back to the forefront.

- Marriage should only be defined as the union between a man and a woman – 46% agree and 46% disagree out of 3,200+ votes and 900+ votes last week

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman

- Abortion is the wrong choice except in cases of incest, rape and to save the life of the mother – 44% agree and 49% disagree out of 1,700+ votes and 700+ votes last week

- Prohibit same-sex marriage, but allow domestic partnerships providing to same-sex partners the same benefits as marriage 44% agree and 48% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 750+ votes last week

The issues of illegal immigration and earned legalization process are also very sensitive. It will be interesting to see how this issue plays with the electorate, not only at the presidential level, but also at State and local levels, especially in border states. McCain’s about face on the matter does not shield him from criticism on his right.

- Require illegal immigrants to go back to their country of origin to apply for legal immigration – 47% agree and 43% disagree out of 10,400+ votes and 2,000+votes last week

Finally, the issue of Iraq is coming back to the forefront. The apparent and relative improvement of the situation on the ground is reflected in voters’ opinion. If the conflict stays on this track, Iraq will increasingly play to McCain’s strengths vs. Clinton’s and Obama’s anti-war stances.

- The U.S. is making progress in Iraq – 43% agree and 47% disagree out of 2,900+ votes and 800+ votes last week

Popularity: 97% [?]

The Select2008 Blog was just added to the Wonkosphere directory of political blogs tracking the 2008 election cycle. The Select2008 Blog is one of the only 65 independent blogs tracking the 2008 presidential election - as opposed to over a thousand liberal and conservative blogs.

The Select2008 Blog currently focuses on the four top face offs of the 2008 presidential primaries - Clinton v. Obama, McCain v. Huckabee, Clinton v. McCain, and McCain v. Obama, by:

- Comparing and tracking candidates’ programs and policy positions, which is based on Select2008.com’s detailed analysis of presidential candidates’ electoral platforms (over a thousand bite-size questions);

- Compiling and reporting on Select2008.com’s live polling, which is based on 450,000 votes over the last month.

For additional information on Wonkosphere, here’s a summary in their own words:

“Wonkosphere is designed for those who seek an analysis of the political buzz that is timely and unbiased.

Wonkosphere tracks hundreds of blogs and web sites per day, more than any human can read. Patented technology text analysis technology identifies posts that matter, not just posts that are popular.

If you’re tracking individual candidates, our unique analysis will show you their share of buzz in conservative and liberal blogs, highlight the most representative posts, and tell you whether the tone of discussion about your candidate is trending up or down.“

Popularity: 28% [?]

The whole gamut of so-called divisive social issues have bubbled up to the top of Select2008.com’s live polling, based on last week’s over 300,000 votes. These issues include same-sex marriage, a constitutional amendment on marriage, partial birth abortion, the “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy and restrictions to Second Amendment rights.

Highly contentious issues still hold sway with voters – beyond traditional value voters - in the 2008 presidential election cycle. This matter of fact runs counter to the conventional wisdom that values’ influence has diminished.

If the sample below is any indication, look for social values to make a resurgence as we move into the general campaign:

- The U.S. Constitution should define marriage as the union between a man and a woman – 47% agree and 44% disagree

- Prohibit same-sex marriage, but allow domestic partnerships providing to same-sex partners the same benefits as marriage – 42% agree and 49% disagree

- Support ban on partial birth abortion – 42% agree and 46% disagree

- The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, is right to ask to maintain the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy – 43% agree and 43% disagree

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment – 50% agree and 41% disagree

Popularity: 38% [?]

Healthcare issues have bubbled up to the top of the Select2008.com’s live polling over the last couple of weeks of intense primaries campaigning, on both Democratic and Republican sides of the spectrum.

Universal healthcare is a key point of contention between Clinton and Obama, in terms of mandate and scope. The Federal government’s role in healthcare is a key contention point between Democrats – who favor an extension of the Federal government’s role – and Republicans – who favor Federal disengagement and market-based solutions to healthcare issues.

As independents keep tuning into the campaign, the following issues - based on over 300,000 votes over the last week - will remain critical:

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare - 45% agree and 48% disagree

- Achieve universal healthcare as quickly as possible - 47% agree and 42% disagree

- Allow States to devise their own path to universal healthcare - 42% agree and 48% disagree

- Make SCHIP available even to children who already benefit from private health insurance - 41% agree and 41% disagree

- Move from employer-based and government-based healthcare insurance to consumer-based healthcare insurance - 39% agree and 39% disagree

Popularity: 36% [?]

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are furiously campaigning to rally voters for the Super Tuesday vote. They will spend an record $19 million in ads over the next few days to sway voters in the 22 States that hold a primary this Tuesday.

With just a few days ahead and a surge in votes on Select2008 over the last few days, Obama appears to be leading over Clinton on the issues, 49% to 45%. A closer look reveals that Obama’s positions and proposals lead on the key issues of defense, economy, government reform, healthcare, and international affairs. Clinton leads on homeland security and education.

Popularity: 66% [?]

Today’s hottest questions mix domestic and international affairs and demonstrate that voters consider the candidacies’ multiple facets to make up their minds:

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq’s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces

- Support education vouchers for private schools

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- Rule out using force with Iran

Popularity: 43% [?]

Rudy Giuliani has abandoned his bid to the presidential candidacy in the aftermath of the Florida primaries and endorsed John McCain. However, his supporters might want to make up their own minds and choose between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Although other candidates are still in the race on the Republican side - namely Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul - McCain and Romney have really jumped ahead of the pack, so we’ll focus on them for now.

We highlight below the key policy issues that will help Giuliani’s supporters choose between McCain and Romney for the remaining Republican primaries and Super Tuesday:

- Energy and environment: Giuliani agreed with Romney and disagreed with McCain on global warming and energy independence, including supporting biofuels and corn ethanol subsidies, tapping into domestic sources of oil such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), setting up a Federal market to trade carbon emissions caps, and increasing research funding for alternative energy technology;

- Healthcare: Giuliani’s healthcare plan and support for market-based approaches to lower healthcare costs and to increase access to health insurance has differences and similarities with McCain and Romney’s proposals, such as drug reimportation, setting up a means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, creating a tax deduction for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, a tax deduction for healthcare costs, or subsidies to high-cost and low-income individuals to supplement tax credits and Medicaid;

- Homeland Security and war on terrorism: Giuliani and McCain have both boasted his leadership skills, as well as military and foreign affairs experience, to propel their candidacies; however Giuliani disagreed more often with McCain than with Romney on this issue, in particular on maintaining the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, supporting the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding,, and supporting the NSA‘s warrantless wiretapping program; on the other hand, Giuliani and Romney had their strongest disagreements on illegal immigration, for instance on Federal grants to sanctuary cities.

- Social issues: Giuliani’s stance on conservative social issues undermined his candidacy; however, even McCain and Romney disagree on gun control and on whether to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution on marriage, defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; their support of a pro-life position and record on the question also differ;

- Taxes: Giuliani disagreed with both McCain and Romney on the Alternative Minimum Tax; Giuliani proposed steep tax cuts, which provide common grounds with both McCain and Romney, although these candidates differ on both on tax incentives to corporations and income tax; they also have not both signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

Popularity: 69% [?]

As noted in a previous post, Rudy Giuliani still has an edge when it comes to connecting with voters on issues and proposals. If he managed to maintain his lead over John McCain, he would still have a good shot at coming back to the top of the pack in the Florida primary and the Super Tuesday contest.

Rudy Giuliani‘s position might nonetheless be weaker than it seems: although he ends up being ahead of other candidates overall, his lead stems from being strong on all issues, but without necessarily leading. Although, this seems to indicate that his candidacy is overall well-rounded, it might prevent him from differentiating from the other candidates, as Huckabee has done it on social issues for instance.

However, policy and programmatic positions are only one aspect of the political equation. Giuliani‘s lower profile over the last few weeks might have hurt his exposure in the media beyond recovery.

Popularity: 27% [?]