Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

The field of presidential hopefuls has narrowed down this week with Edwards and Giuliani bowing out of the race. However, the race is more competitive than ever, ahead of next week’s Super Tuesday primaries.

To help users make up their minds in these more confrontational times, we are launching four Primaries Face Offs on Select2008:

Users can still compare and choose among more than two candidates, especially useful for Republican and Independent voters.

Users can also refer to some of our recent blog posts on the Democratic Face Off and the Republican Face Off, as well as our posts to help Edwards and Giuliani supporters make up their minds.

Popularity: 37% [?]

Rudy Giuliani has abandoned his bid to the presidential candidacy in the aftermath of the Florida primaries and endorsed John McCain. However, his supporters might want to make up their own minds and choose between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Although other candidates are still in the race on the Republican side - namely Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul - McCain and Romney have really jumped ahead of the pack, so we’ll focus on them for now.

We highlight below the key policy issues that will help Giuliani’s supporters choose between McCain and Romney for the remaining Republican primaries and Super Tuesday:

- Energy and environment: Giuliani agreed with Romney and disagreed with McCain on global warming and energy independence, including supporting biofuels and corn ethanol subsidies, tapping into domestic sources of oil such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), setting up a Federal market to trade carbon emissions caps, and increasing research funding for alternative energy technology;

- Healthcare: Giuliani’s healthcare plan and support for market-based approaches to lower healthcare costs and to increase access to health insurance has differences and similarities with McCain and Romney’s proposals, such as drug reimportation, setting up a means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, creating a tax deduction for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, a tax deduction for healthcare costs, or subsidies to high-cost and low-income individuals to supplement tax credits and Medicaid;

- Homeland Security and war on terrorism: Giuliani and McCain have both boasted his leadership skills, as well as military and foreign affairs experience, to propel their candidacies; however Giuliani disagreed more often with McCain than with Romney on this issue, in particular on maintaining the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, supporting the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, like waterboarding,, and supporting the NSA‘s warrantless wiretapping program; on the other hand, Giuliani and Romney had their strongest disagreements on illegal immigration, for instance on Federal grants to sanctuary cities.

- Social issues: Giuliani’s stance on conservative social issues undermined his candidacy; however, even McCain and Romney disagree on gun control and on whether to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution on marriage, defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; their support of a pro-life position and record on the question also differ;

- Taxes: Giuliani disagreed with both McCain and Romney on the Alternative Minimum Tax; Giuliani proposed steep tax cuts, which provide common grounds with both McCain and Romney, although these candidates differ on both on tax incentives to corporations and income tax; they also have not both signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

Popularity: 69% [?]

With the Florida primaries in the rear view mirror and ahead of next week’s Super-Tuesday primaries, Select2008’s five most disputed questions all regard domestic issues: immigration, gun control, abortion, and universal healthcare.

Today’s five hottest questions are:

- Support a legalization plan for illegal immigrants

- Support restrictions to the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms under the Second Amendment

- States should determine their own abortion laws and not have them dictated by judicial mandate

- Veto any immigration reform bill that offers amnesty to illegal immigrants

- Raise taxes to achieve universal healthcare

Popularity: 30% [?]

Ahead of the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week, we have tracked down the five key international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree:

- Defense: the candidates disagree on the size of the necessary increase of the U.S. military and veterans healthcare benefits funding;

- Foreign affairs: Clinton and Obama have strongly disagreed on several foreign affairs-related issues; Obama stated his support in favor of talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; Clinton supported the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while Obama asserted that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; the two candidates also disagree on normalizing relations with Cuba and having the U.S. join the International Criminal Court;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; although both candidates supported the Peru free trade agreement, they disagree on key free trade issues: negotiate new free trade agreements and renegotiate NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Clinton and Obama have had differences over the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; the two candidates also disagree on the way forward on Iraq, either by federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, or by following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, as well as the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- War on terrorism: Obama made a strongly dissenting point against the rest of the candidates’ field by ruling out using nuclear weapons against terrorist leaders like Osama Bin Laden, while other candidates refused to discuss it;

Popularity: 57% [?]

With the Super-Tuesday primaries contest only a week away, there are more than differences of leadership style and personality between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The top Democratic candidates to the presidential nomination have actual disagreements on five key domestic issues:

- Universal healthcare: universal coverage for all Americans, mandatory coverage for all Americans, drugs reimportation, means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, health insurance for small business employees, access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program;

- Immigration: support for driving licenses for undocumented immigrants, scope of earned legalization program;

- Home ownership: remedies to the subprimes crisis;

- Retirement: Raising or eliminating the cap on Social Security taxable income to prevent benefit cuts for future retirees, levying Social Security taxes on income revenues higher than $200,000/year;

- Government accountability and transparency: accepting or refusing lobby money to fund his or her campaign.

Popularity: 57% [?]

As noted in a previous post, Rudy Giuliani still has an edge when it comes to connecting with voters on issues and proposals. If he managed to maintain his lead over John McCain, he would still have a good shot at coming back to the top of the pack in the Florida primary and the Super Tuesday contest.

Rudy Giuliani‘s position might nonetheless be weaker than it seems: although he ends up being ahead of other candidates overall, his lead stems from being strong on all issues, but without necessarily leading. Although, this seems to indicate that his candidacy is overall well-rounded, it might prevent him from differentiating from the other candidates, as Huckabee has done it on social issues for instance.

However, policy and programmatic positions are only one aspect of the political equation. Giuliani‘s lower profile over the last few weeks might have hurt his exposure in the media beyond recovery.

Popularity: 27% [?]