Select2008 Blog - Comparing and tracking the 2008 presidential candidates

The War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism have been looming large over the primaries and presidential campaign.

Interestingly, extremist and populist positions, such as leaving Iraq within 6 months, have vanished. The controversy now focuses on how best to stabilize Iraq, draw down the number of U.S. troops deployed over there, and adjust military expenses to new economic realities.

As for the War on Terrorism, closing the Guantanamo Bay prison camp and banning torture in counter-insurgency and intelligence activities draw the most controversy.

The following sample is based on over 450,000 votes on Select2008.com over the last few weeks:

- Maintain a residual U.S. force in Iraq to conduct targeted counter-terrorism operations, to keep Iraq‘s neighbors in check, and to train Iraqi forces - 48% agree and 43% disagree

- Reduce the U.S. military budget - 49% agree and 43% disagree

- The U.S. is making progress in Iraq - 39% agree and 50% disagree

- Increase U.S. aid to Iraqi refugees- 39% agree and 42% disagree

- Support indefinite incarceration in Guantanamo Bay for terrorists - 39% agree and 46% disagree

- The U.S. Congress should stop funding the war in Iraq - 54% agree and 39% disagree

- Ban the use of torture by American intelligence and law enforcement officers - 51% agree and 38% disagree

Popularity: 29% [?]

John Edwards has just announced that he is ending his bid for the presidential candidacy. This announcement leaves Edwards’ supporters to decide who they will vote for and choose for the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week. We have tracked down in previous posts the five key domestic and international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree.

We are now narrowing the field of key issues for Edwards supporters, based on his positions and proposals during the campaign:

- Foreign affairs: on several foreign affairs-related issues, Edwards sided with either Clinton or Obama; he supported Obama on talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; he opposed Clinton’s support for the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while agreeing with Obama that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; on the other hand, he was ready to go beyond what Clinton and Obama have proposed in terms of strategic incentives for Iran to suspend its nuclear program;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; Edwards opposed the Peru free trade agreement, and overall promoted increased protectionism to shield U.S. workers’ from the downsides of globalization. On free trade, Edwards sided with Clinton on key free trade issues: negotiating new free trade agreements and renegotiating NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Edwards, like Clinton and unlike Obama, supported the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; he opposed federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, and concurred with Obama on following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group as a guideline for a political solution in Iraq. On the other hand, he disagreed with both Clinton and Obama on the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- Universal healthcare: Edwards put forward a very comprehensive and detailed plan for universal healthcare. Clinton’s and Obama’s plan both have differences and similarities with Edwards’ plan on universal coverage for all Americans, mandatory coverage for all Americans, drugs reimportation, means-tested tax credits for healthcare insurance, health insurance for small business employees, and access to the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program;

- Immigration: Edwards, like Clinton, opposed providing driving licenses for undocumented immigrants; he agreed with both Clinton and Obama on the need for an earned legalization program for undocumented immigrants.

Popularity: 49% [?]

Ahead of the Super-Tuesday primaries contest of next week, we have tracked down the five key international issues on which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama disagree:

- Defense: the candidates disagree on the size of the necessary increase of the U.S. military and veterans healthcare benefits funding;

- Foreign affairs: Clinton and Obama have strongly disagreed on several foreign affairs-related issues; Obama stated his support in favor of talking with leaders of ‘rogue‘ nations without preconditions; Clinton supported the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while Obama asserted that the Senate resolution on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was paving the path for a military engagement with Iran; the two candidates also disagree on normalizing relations with Cuba and having the U.S. join the International Criminal Court;

- Free trade: Free trade was a divisive issue during the primaries campaign, as candidates faced the softening economy; although both candidates supported the Peru free trade agreement, they disagree on key free trade issues: negotiate new free trade agreements and renegotiate NAFTA;

- War in Iraq: Clinton and Obama have had differences over the War in Iraq from the onset back in 2002; the two candidates also disagree on the way forward on Iraq, either by federalizing Iraq along sectarian lines, or by following the conclusions from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, as well as the size and mission of the U.S. “residual” force in Iraq;

- War on terrorism: Obama made a strongly dissenting point against the rest of the candidates’ field by ruling out using nuclear weapons against terrorist leaders like Osama Bin Laden, while other candidates refused to discuss it;

Popularity: 57% [?]

Select2008.com’s activity has accelerated ahead of the South Carolina’s primaries as a vast number of users turn to our site for help to choose their favorite candidate for the 2008 primaries. The website’s live polling statistics are now starting to yield some interesting facts. The audience’s geographic distribution is still concentrated on the West Coast (California and Washington states), New York, New England, and the Chicago area. Therefore, Select2008’s insights on candidates’ popularity and most divisive issues will be most relevant for the February 5 Super Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards and Barack Obama are head-to-head and ahead of Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama has a commanding lead on Economic and International Affairs, while Hillary Clinton edges ahead on Energy and Environment and Education. John Edwards is ahead on Defense (including the war in Iraq) and Healthcare.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is slightly ahead of John McCain. Rudy Giuliani seems to be #2 on most issues and therefore comes out ahead of all other candidates overall. Rudy Giuliani also leads in Energy and Environment. John McCain is strong on Homeland Security and in a dead heat on Economy with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Rudy Giualini and Mitt Romney are head to head on Government Reform (including tax cuts). Mike Huckabee leads on Education.

Popularity: 67% [?]